This post is a personal opinion from Kyvio’s CTO Steven van der Peijl. Let it be clear that Steven is not clairvoyant neither a Virologist or epidemiologist and not an economy expert. None of this is intended as financial advice.
Here it goes…
I want to share my OPINION as to what is going to happen in the next few weeks and months. As you might or might not know both Steven and Neil Napier (Kyvio CEO) have been talking about preparing for the recession for over a year.. and now it’s knocking on the door.
First what is this article based on?
With everything you read on the internet you should ask yourself, who is this person making these claims, stating these opinions and what is the basis and motivation behind it. So let me start by addressing that.
Like I said in the very first paragraph I’m not some GURU in various of the topics I will talk about. I’m a CTO and 20+ year programmer and I run a company (Kyvio) that helps people run online marketing by building funnels, creating Membership sites and selling (mostly digital) products (and soon design & implement customer journeys).
On top of that I’ve been traveling for the last 12 years and I have lived in 4 continents and many countries & different cities. As a result I have friends in many places and I’m part of a very powerful community of super-smart Location Independent Entrepreneurs (The Dynamite Circle) that have been growing successful online businesses for many many years.
What does that mean?
– I know how to Google about a 100x better than the average person
– I have access to 1st person relations all over the world to know what is going on on the ground
– A lot of smart minds together are an immense source of creativity and experience where we discussed this upcoming recession at length since many months prior.
Then last but not least…
I’m very informed. I’ve been trading (day and swing trading) for fun for over a year in crypto and right now started in the stock market as I’ve been waiting for this moment for over a year. On top of that I obviously get my information, guidance and mentorship from people WAY smarter in terms of finances & stock markets than I am.
So what is my motivation?
First and foremost I want to help our Kyvian community to be prepared and hopefully thrive in the hard months to come. Secondly I obviously also want to promote and grow Kyvio.
We are working on Kyvio 2 public beta and we have amazing plans to really make a difference for people and in the MarTech industry.
This is what I see happening in the next 3-4 months and beyond
The day I’m writing this is Tuesday 24th of March 2020 and that is important to understand when you read this as today is the day the snowball has started.
Right now we are in the middle of the #COVID19 crisis where many countries are going in complete lock-down and bringing significant parts of their economy to a complete STOP. This is on TOP of an economy that was already showing signs of trouble about 4-6 months before the virus first popped up in Wuhan, China.
Let me create a simple timeline so its easy to follow:
0. The virus spread like wild-fire first in China, then in Europe and now still spreading in Europe and the USA. As a result, the economy gets put on hold and it was the straw that broke the camel’s back and the stock markets have crashed.
1. The USA government is printing a humongous amount of money out of thin air and creating massive relief packages for the economy. The exact agreement isn’t there right now but will be in the next few days. Other countries and local government are following and taking similar actions giving away money extending tax due dates, cutting costs etc.
2. The stock market already reacted today and the Down Jones Index has never seen such a big growth in 1 day since 1933. I expect that in the next few weeks we will see more growth of the stock markets. This is a phenomena called a ‘dead-cat bounce’ in trading.
* Now how long this growth will last is my main point of uncertainty. It could go for like a month I guess but quarterly reports are coming out soon as this first quarter is almost up.
3. Once a significant number of the biggest listed companies present their quarterly reports and countries do the same I expect a LOT of ‘profit warnings’ and just generally a LOT of bad news. Basically, we get the FIRST bill presented from all the mayhem of the last 2 months. This is where I expect the REAL crash is going to happen.
*If governments manage to get the economy going enough it might be delayed until the 2nd ‘bill’ but I highly doubt that.
4. When this ‘real’ crash happens we will be officially slammed into a recession (quite a bit of countries already had negative or zero growth last quarter, the rest will follow the quarter after that). It is also possible it will be the start of a depression (*a decline of more than 10% of real GDP or a recession that lasts 18+ months). I think the 2nd ‘bill’ after the 2nd quarter of this year will tell us if this is going to be a recession or depression. It would not surprise me if we would do another nose-dive in the markets at this point.
If we manage to not get ourselves into a economic depression I fully expect the recession to last at the very least 6 months.
5. A few months after the worst part of the crash is over we’ll see the new Amazon’s, Uber’s, etc step up. My personal top candidates of where these new companies will come from are: VR and Blockchain.
I don’t feel I need to explain why these 2, concerning our current state of isolation and ridiculous amount of money being printed without regard of consequences.
So that is it, I know it is quite negative BUT you’ve got to realize that especially as entrepreneurs this scenario has HUGE opportunities depending on what type of business you have and how well prepared you are.
Even as a Restaurant owner I believe there are big opportunities. We already see a HUGE growth in delivery services. If I was a restaurant owner I’d expand my kitchen by claiming sitting space and fire up the online marketing machine and consult experts on how to get best ranked in these home-delivery apps (that 1 billion USD investment Softbank did in Rappi last year is gonna be one heck of a good investment!!)
And this example leads us to YOU, our Kyvians!
What you can (and should) do as Kyvian
- Most of you run remote businesses just like ours. Millions of businesses are suddenly forced to go remote and they need help setting this up.
- Build funnels for these newfound businesses that suddenly have to shift to a much bigger online presence
- Leverage the power of experts.
Many people will lose their jobs, everybody is an expert of something, and everybody will be looking for additional revenue streams. So create online courses and/or services together with these experts. You create the infrastructure (using Kyvio 😉 ), their funnels, all integrations and payment setup and let the experts be themselves and do a revenue split.
- Talking about additional revenue streams… many businesses will be looking for that as well. Would building out a (low) recurring membership sites be a fit? I bet you if you get a bit creative the answer would be YES for many different types of businesses. YOU can be the expert to set all that up (using Kyvio again of course 😉 ).
- Don’t just think funnels, we are in an experience economy and slowly moving to a transformation economy (bet ya some serious transformations are already in progress and more will occur in the next few months).
Right now with many countries going into lockdown (and the aftermath of this) providing real-life experiences is hard to impossible.. hence marketers need to up their online game in terms of providing these experiences. This is done using ‘customer journeys’ or ‘Customer Experience (CX)’.
Coincidentally our soon to be launched Kyvio 2 platform is a pivot from a funnel builder + membership site builder to a Customer Journey platform with full design and implementation of the complete journey (still including the ability to create super-fast funnels and beautiful membership sites of course).
Final notes on a more personal level
Everybody is extra stressed right now, some just because of the virus and the smarter people not just because of the virus but more because of the economic situation. I’ve told the following to our whole (distributed) 18 people team and want to share this with you too.
Do not kid yourself, you are extra stressed too, even if it is subconscious. Social media and the news are exponentially (pun intended) making this situation worse. Stop checking the news / social media every hour. Really it matters SO much. Once every 5 days, or 3 if you must, is more than enough. You won’t miss out on the most important news.
On top of that it hurts your productivity (and NOW is the time to go harder in your business) it also lowers your immunity which makes you more susceptible.
I can’t possibly say it better than my friends Itamar Marani and Chris Reynolds from the Business Podcast: so go listen to it (link opens in new tab). Taking leadership doesn’t have to mean leading a team or a business, it can also just be taking leadership of the thoughts in your mind, your family, your job etc.
Make sure what-ever you offer comes from your desire to help people instead of taking advantage of the situation. People will remember and this recession will take long enough for people to completely ignore your business and leave you destroyed.
Focus even more on acquiring customers. It is the lifeline of your business, so please don’t make the mistake of thinking “people won’t buy my X anyway so not gonna bother“.
Focus even more on retaining customers. Offer parked accounts for low fees or even for free for a few months, offer EXTRA services on top w/o charging more, think about lower-tier products/services just to keep that recurring going. This is the ONE time where only stupid people say ‘raise your prices’.
Think about local government stimulus packages, put some effort into finding out what is being offered and take advantage!
And finally, remember everything is negotiable right now! This includes SaaS recurring fees, productized services, interest rates, extra loans, etc.
I hope you got some value out of my ramblings, and feel free to share if you did.
All the best & stay healthy and prepare to thrive. A recession/depression is one of the biggest opportunities of a lifetime to acquire wealth!
Keep Creating, Keep Selling